Recession (149)

Cleared to land?
Markets and economics

Cleared to land?

A soft landing is coming into view, but with potential pockets of turbulence ahead, we are neutra...

By Tim DraysonEmiel van den Heiligenberg

24 Oct 2024

3 min read

Reversion to ‘un-inversion’
Christopher Jeffery
Markets and economics

Reversion to ‘un-inversion’

Assessing the potential signaling value of the yield curve.
By Christopher Jeffery
18 Sep 2024
4 min read
Podcast: Volatility, dis-inversion and the path of rates – Market Talk
LGIM
Markets and economics

Podcast: Volatility, dis-inversion and the path of rates – Market Talk

What was behind the 'flash crash' and last week's smaller wobble? Ben Bennett, Head of Investment...
By LGIM
13 Sep 2024
1 min read
Is a US recession more likely than you think?
Rameet Gulsin
Economics

Is a US recession more likely than you think?

Here's an alternative approach to estimating recession probabilities: beige theorem.
By Rameet Gulsin
12 Sep 2024
2 min read
Chart of the month: Is the US economy about to stall?
Economics

Chart of the month: Is the US economy about to stall?

The Sahm rule has been triggered by rising unemployment, signalling a potential recession ahead f...

By James Carrick

16 Aug 2024

2 min read

What's suddenly spooked markets?
Markets and economics

What's suddenly spooked markets?

It's not often you wake up to see a major equity market down over 12% in a day. Yet that's exactl...
By Robert GriffithsChristopher TeschmacherBen Bennett
05 Aug 2024
5 min read
Mind the grey swans
Chris Franklin
Markets and economics

Mind the grey swans

Rather than worrying about unpredictable possibilities, we focus our energy on events whose...
By Chris Franklin
20 Feb 2024
5 min read
Pinning the tail on the donkey
Tim Drayson
Economics

Pinning the tail on the donkey

The output gap is one of the most important concepts for macro investors. Unfortunately, it is ve...
By Tim Drayson
19 Feb 2024
3 min read